Elizabeth May is sitting in the front passenger seat, eating a tuna sandwich into which she periodically stuffs a potato chip, when I make the mistake of suggesting that reasonable people could disagree about the decision to exclude the Greens from the debates.

She does not think so, and leans into a treatise on the specifics of the rules and how the debate commission had misunderstood them — but most of all she’s annoyed with herself for not knowing that the position of commissioner had been vacant since 2023. That has left an employee in charge, and, well, that hasn’t gone well. 

It’s a sunny spring Saturday in Saanich, on Vancouver Island, and I’m in the backseat of a compact SUV being driven by a retired schoolteacher with a disarming smile. My phone is perched on the centre console while I ask May questions about the riding, and her fight to retain it. 

Earlier, I followed May around at an Earth Day fair in Saanich, and now we’re headed to the Saanichton Fairgrounds for an all-candidates debate. May is 70 years old, but she never stops moving. Her 24-year-old constituency assistant says she has trouble keeping up, and I believe it. I lost track of May several times as she motored around the fair. 

This is May’s home turf, in more ways than one. 

Later, at an all-candidates meeting attended by around 150 to 200 people, I leaned across the aisle to a couple in their thirties. 

After identifying myself as a journalist, I note that they appear to be among the youngest people in the room. They laugh. They’ve noticed that too. I ask who they’re voting for and they tell me it will be a strategic vote. They’ll be guided by the latest polls and vote recommendation sites. They don’t always vote strategically, but this election is too important. 

It’s a sentiment I’ve been hearing a lot — that this is a unique, and uniquely important, election. 

This event is well attended, and the room is more or less full. But nearly everyone has hair that runs from grey to white — a nod to the demographics of the riding, and also maybe to the demographics of people who show up to an all-candidates event at a local fairground. 

Conservative candidate Cathie Ounsted isn’t here, in keeping with her party’s reticence to participate in these sort of unscripted encounters with voters. I’ve also noticed that Ounsted’s signs, unlike those of her opponents, rarely feature a photo of the candidate. Ounsted will most likely finish in the top two in this riding, and yet, she’s the invisible candidate. 

Early on, the moderator asks who is still undecided. Only a dozen or so hands go up. For most of these people, the decision has been made. The crowd is unfailingly polite, clapping for all three candidates, but by my imprecise reckoning I’d say May’s applause was generally loudest, followed closely by Liberal candidate David Beckham (yes, really). 

Beckham explains that months ago, no one wanted the Liberal nomination here. But, he says, Mark Carney’s arrival changed everything. Now everyone wanted to run, but it was too late, as he had already secured the nomination. 

In our conversation on the way over, May had stressed that since her first election in Saanich-Gulf Islands she’s been in a dogfight with a Conservative each time. So this is nothing new. 

But Beckham’s apparent popularity at the candidates meeting points to the elephant in the room: Could a red tide help split votes between May and Beckham and allow Ounsted to cut up the middle to victory? 

I’ll have more on this story to come in a feature report later this week, so stay tuned. 

Singh-demonium in Victoria? 

Later, I find myself outside a drive-in ice cream shop in Victoria, surrounded by a cheering crowd of over 150 Laurel Collins supporters — there to welcome NDP leader Jagmeet Singh to the riding.

There has been no shortage of obituaries written for the NDP, and a national campaign that has struggled to find traction in the shadow of the two larger parties. 

But what I saw on Saturday evening didn’t look like a campaign that was ready to quit, and I think nods towards the fact that whatever the national poll numbers, the NDP are more competitive than they may appear in ridings held by popular incumbent MPs. 

This was the second time I’ve seen Singh in person over the past two weeks, and he has an undeniable charisma that doesn’t seem to translate as well on TV as it does in person. 

First, the crowd was large. For a relatively small city like Victoria, 150 people is an accomplishment. That’s a number that Times-Colonist reporter Michael John Lo estimated, and I’m inclined to agree. But if you told me you counted with lasers and it was actually 200, I wouldn’t be surprised. 

Second, the energy was real. Before Singh even exited his bus, people were chanting. When he did disembark, he led an impromptu dance party in the parking lot. 

Singh and Collins, a popular incumbent MP with a background in non-profits, including ones supporting abused women and advocating for divestment from fossil fuels, would go on to take over the order counter and serve up ice-cream cones to excited supporters posing for selfies. 

It was all sound and fury, and then, as fast as the crowd whipped itself up, it was over. The bus back on the road, the crowd melting away. A brief show of force in a campaign fought mostly on doorsteps, rather than at high-profile events. 

But Collins is fighting off a fierce challenge in this election from Liberal candidate Will Greaves, an associate professor at the University of Victoria whose research focuses on climate change. 

His campaign claims to have 400 volunteers, and, if so, Collins will need her own legions fired up and ready to go. 

After the event I reached out to an academic who lives in Victoria and is a traditional NDP voter. He told me he thinks folks in Victoria are strategic voters, a university and government crowd, and he noted that historically, Liberal victories have been possible in the riding. He thinks the Liberals will take the riding but that it will be close. 

Whatever may be happening nationally Collins won’t be going down without a fight, and the result is likely to be tight. 

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