With a backroom deal, Prime Minister Mark Carney has bulldozed Canada’s remaining climate policies and ignited a firestorm among Indigenous communities across the country. And for what?

Is Carney playing some form of 4D chess that the rest of us are too plebeian to understand? Was he simply outplayed by Danielle Smith? Or has he developed a sudden, convenient case of amnesia, forgetting every warning he ever issued about the climate tragedy on the horizon?

Likely, the answer is cruder: He is, fundamentally, a banker. And like the titans of business surrounding him, he wants to make a buck. If that profit comes at the expense of the climate and Indigenous rights, well, that’s just the Canadian way — we’ve been doing it for centuries. With Donald Trump dismantling the American economy next door, Carney evidently decided this was the perfect moment to throw open the doors to a flailing foreign fossil fuel industry by casting it as a taxpayer-funded lifeline.

The ‘grand bargain‘ between Prime Minister Carney and Alberta Premier Danielle Smith isn’t a strategy. It is a betrayal, for which future generations will pay.

This is not “Team Canada.” This is “Team Oil.”

The four tar sands companies that stand to gain the most — Canadian Natural Resources Limited (CNRL), Cenovus Energy, Imperial Oil (ExxonMobil), and Suncor — control 80 per cent of tar sands production. They are 73 per cent foreign-owned and over 60 per cent American-owned. Amidst a trade war with Trump, our Carney is scoring an own-goal by funnelling wealth to U.S. shareholders.

The centerpiece of this betrayal is the proposed Alberta-to-B.C. tar sands pipeline. It is an economically unsound zombie project that lacks private sector backing. There is a strong possibility that taxpayers will be forced to subsidize it  —  repeating the $34-billion Trans Mountain boondoggle. But this time, the wall of opposition from Indigenous communities and Canadians will be higher, making it even more financially toxic. Already Coastal First Nations, the Haida, and most recently the Assembly of First Nations, have opposed the pipeline and the whole ‘grand bargain.’

The ledger of loss

University of Toronto climate researcher Professor Laura Tozer recently compiled a list of what we have lost in the ‘grand bargain’ in the short time since Carney became Prime Minister:

• Suspended: Clean Electricity Regulations in Alberta.
• Gutted: Methane regulations.
• Scrapped: The Oil & Gas Sector Emissions Cap.
• Abandoned: The consumer carbon pricing system.
• Terminated: The Canada Greener Homes retrofit and loan programs.
• Killed: The iZEV program and the Zero-Emission Vehicle mandate.
• Enacted: Bill C-5, the ‘Building Canada Act,’ allowing the government to override 12 laws and 7 regulations—including environmental assessments—for “designated” projects.
• Retracted: Anti-greenwashing legislation.
• Dropped: The proposed tax on private jets and yachts.

And, I would add:

• Lost: The ‘climate consciousness’ of the Liberal Party and Carney’s voice in Quebec, Steven Guilbeault.

Tozer invited Carney to come explain “this track record of backtracking on climate policy” to her frightened and angry UofT graduate and undergraduate students. “Would you like to come to speak to my class to explain this, Mark Carney?” she wrote.

Some pundits argue we “bought” a quieter Alberta government. Good luck with that. The UCP’s grievance machine is already revving up; anger is their only renewable resource. We were told Alberta would finally adopt stronger industrial carbon pricing. But the MOU contains no timelines, and the new price is lower than the federal government’s own original policy — which they could have simply enforced.

Predictably, other provinces are now lining up, hands out, demanding their own exemptions and carve-outs, while Quebec’s relationship with Ottawa is further undermined by Guilbeault hitting the eject button.

Who could have seen that coming? Everyone. Alberta now seems to be driving Canadian climate policy as Ottawa abdicates the space. Instead of a stronger cooperative federation, we could have more balkanization and a “go your own way” approach that is not grounded in science. Desperately needed emission draw-down will not happen when federal policies and protections are removed, or suspended, and provincial exemptions expanded.

The carbon bombs on the horizon

While we are distracted by the smoke of the ‘grand bargain,’ we risk missing the fossil fuel projects that are creeping closer to reality. Not hypothetical pipelines, but projects racing toward final investment decisions — when capital is secured and construction becomes inevitable.

Since September, Carney’s government has fast-tracked two massive “carbon bombs” via the Major Projects Office: Phase 2 of LNG Canada and the Ksi Lisims LNG project.

Combined, these projects would export over 26 million tonnes of LNG annually. When burned, that equals roughly 68 million tonnes of CO2 per year — the equivalent of adding the emissions from 18 coal plants or 15 million cars.

These projects face fierce Indigenous opposition. Lawsuits have been filed against Ksi Lisims by the Lax Kw’alaams Band and Metlakatla First Nation. Last week, the Gitanyow Hereditary Chiefs sent a letter to over 40 banks, credit agencies, and pension funds, demanding they refuse to finance Ksi Lisims.

Like tar sands oil, the market case for Canadian LNG is collapsing. Chinese demand has dropped month-over-month for nearly a year. A global supply glut is looming that will last for years, coinciding exactly with when these projects would come online.

And again, who benefits? In the case of Ksi Lisims, it’s Western LNG — an obscure Texas-based shell company — backed by Trump-cozy private equity firms Blackstone and Apollo. In the case of LNG Canada, the project is wholly owned by state oil companies: Petronas (Malaysia), PetroChina, KOGAS (Korea), along with Shell and Mitsubishi.

There are no Canadian beneficiaries. Only Canadian liabilities.

The Carney government has achieved a Harper-Pollievre hydra dream: a gutted climate policy and a derailed reconciliation while advancing projects that are financially, legally, and environmentally toxic. For Canada this means growing emissions, torpedoed international respect in terms of global climate change accountability, worsening national climate impacts, increased costs to Canadians, and an increased outflow of profits to foreign companies and billionaires. 

Will this betrayal finally unite the Indigenous rights and climate movements into a force that cannot be ignored? Carney seems to only be listening to the extractive industry and its agenda. The only thing that will get his attention is disruption.

Perhaps it is time to shut down Canada again.

Richard Brooks is the Climate Finance Director at Stand.earth, a grassroots environmental organization working to transform policy and laws in the United States and Canada.